Supply and Demand in the NFL

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Updated: January 10, 2014
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With the first iterations of the 2014 NFL mock draft it’s time to discuss the concept of supply and demand. Like any commodity that is bought and sold in the US the supply and demand relationship ultimately determines market value. While these three concepts are intertwined, they are completely separate. Understanding the current state of each of these principles can enable NFL agents to capture the greatest possible market position.

Why does this matter for NFL agents?

Every NFL agent wants to snag the next Peyton Manning Andrew Luck but chances are unless you are Drew Rosenhaus or work at CAA you’ll have to find someone else. The top picks are going to go to the established power houses, however with the league spending over 3.9 billion annually, there is plenty to go around.

What is demand?

The NFLIt’s no secret that, in today’s information age, an agent can use technology clearly identify which teams are willing to spend for positions. Just a quick look at the numbers indicates that the Eagles will spend on offense ($74M) and the Bengals will spend on Defense ($69M). This kind of information, combined with League injury data and retirement insight, can give are agents a clear perspective of what type of players will be in demand for the next season.

 

 

What is Supply?

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 Attempting to determine the future supply of NFL players is a little more difficult. Every year the NFL Draft experts will attempt to subjectively break down the future value of a potential college player.

At the team level, scouting is more of an art rather than a science. Even after countless scientific papers have discussed the inaccuracy (and more over stupidity) of using a stopwatch to measure at 40 yard dash, teams continue to make multi-million dollar decisions on faulty and downright embarrassing data. To say it’s more entertainment than a science is an understatement.

What you need to know?

Courtsey of USA Today

Imagine if you had a way to cut through the nonsense of today’s NFL dog and pony show and could get the answer you want: which of these guys will make me money? The ASI index is every agent’s dream.  Understanding this little secret can make even the newest agents rival the established power houses. The fact is it takes very few data points for agents to draw a concrete conclusion.

At the end of the day, less than 1% of the population has the basic physiological requirements (ASI greater than 1700) to play in the NFL. Even fewer have the skills, commitment and drive for long term success in the NFL. By simply eliminating physically unqualified potential prospects and reviewing the quality of outliers illustrated by a reliable data analytics system, savvy agents can leverage hidden correlations to turn 3rd round prospects into long-term gold mines (see Jamal Charles Article).
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